Saturday 9 August 2008

Bear Baiting

Never attack Russia is the bottom line for any commander. It was hubris and a vulgar triumphalism from some sections of United States policy-makers to declare that there was only one world power now when the ossified structures of Soviet socialism fractured. Russia itself remained one of the most powerful countries on Earth and even at the low points in the last years of the 20th century was never out, just down.

Russia controls the mineral wealth of its territories, and the access routes from them to the markets they serve. Failure to recognise and accept this will produce the silly and dangerous adventurism displayed by Georgia's leaders and encouraged by strands of Western policy analysis that was summed up succinctly by Ed Shils on Vietnam 40 years ago: 'We are doing it in Vietnam because we can.' And it is as wrong now as it was then. No you can't.

2 comments:

Nick Drew said...

controls the mineral wealth of its territories

... and more-or-less controls the resources of its former territories (in Central Asia), too

which adds up to Quite A Lot

ксожалению

hatfield girl said...

Elements of Russia's 58th Army entered South Ossetia (effectively outside of Georgian rule for 15 years) to defend the lives and property of Russian citizens. The President of Russia (and I bet the Prime Minister too) stated that the defence of Russians and their interests throughout the world is a priority.

How groups of combatants are counted keeps slipping past me, ND, but an army sounds considerably bigger than what is stationed at Basra Airport. 58th Army? Where are the other 57 and what are they doing?

The remarks about the status of Russian citizens in any jurisdiction sound the same as the other super-power's assertions about their citizens: two super-powers, not one.

This is adventurism and baiting of the worst and most dangerous kind; the Serbs didn't quite qualify (though who can forget the videos of the Russian tank commanders speeding to aid their Serb brothers, and getting there before Nato got itself together, and there was that disaster of a news conference at the airport), so Russia let it pass. It is not the same here - these are threats to Russian citizens and Russian economic interests.