A majority of over ten and a half thousand would normally do. Not after Glasgow East and the leads the SNP is currently displaying in the polls. So is this the moment of truth for Brownian Labour?
A by election cannot be avoided in our normal political world, and will certainly inflict devastaing damage on Brown's prime ministership and the Labour Party as once again appalling failures in economic, financial, domestic, social and foreign policy for the last eleven years are revisited and the lucky Scots vote themselves out from under. What is to be done?
Hold the by election and precipitate Brown's fall from power? That would be best for the Labour Party. They could sort themselves out with a Leader who stands for something identifiably Labour, go into a general election, lose it, but lose it respectably and use the respite of opposition to regroup into decency.
Call a general election straight away, with Brown still Leader so that at least his oh so deserved humiliation is delivered by the whole country and Labour goes into opposition still saddled with a Brownian faction that will find a thousand reasons to stay a least in Party power? This would be the worst possible outcome for the Labour party and is a serious threat to its continuing as one of the two political power holders in the UK.
Argue now that so great is the threat facing the Union from a surging SNP, from financial instability and recession, from international tension after the resurgence of Cold War actions by Russia added to the newer threat of international terrorism that, temporarily, stability springing from continuity of governance requires all electoral processes to be put on hold.
It ought to be replace the Brown Leadership (either forced by the loss in Fife or chosen by those with an interest in self and Party preservation) and a general election; but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Looking forward to Fife which Brown will be hard pushed to find an excuse not to pop into. The Classic Labour problem; Coal shipyards and Communism have been replaced by “Silicon Glens”. Labour replaced the Liberal as a big beast in the Khaki election when the urban working class demanded representation. That class is disappearing. This is the very heart of the left and its dwindling adherents may find themselves muttering “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold “...................Resquiat In Pace New Labour
( as I said )
Disagree , I think it would be great mistake to avoid eletoral judgment or be seen to try. Brown has to argue his case and deal fairly with the electorate . Tghis , in the long term , would be the best idea for the Labour Party(not that I care)
Much of the electorate, and of the political establishment - Bank of England, Civil Service, Church, Law, Money, Posh, would like to see the end of New Labour's clumsy and ill-educated destructive assault on permanent power. Brownian usurpers of Blair's voted democratic power want the rank conferred by office and the power of patronage conferred by office to attach to them personally, and for good.
The longer they are left undisturbed in office the better their chance of arranging this. It really is crucial that the Conservatives, the front line shock troops in getting them out, do so at once. I take great heart from Mr Cameron's words: 'The Prime Minister should take his holiday, and then there must be a general election'. Presumably he can force one, and we will be saved 20 months of governance of very doubtful legitimacy ending in an attempt to maintain itself by all and any means.
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