I Spy With My Little Eye

Mr Berlusconi should never be underestimated.  While the commentariat has settled on an interpretation of what is going on, Berlusconi is hearing secret harmonies.  We may think that he seeks to gain immunity for himself and his colleagues and businesses from any judicial threat and that he will then leave his office for the pleasures of private life.

After all, he has stopped the social democratic, socialist, and communist left, indeed he has reduced them to a jelly.  He has removed particularly irksome taxes that were difficult to dodge - in Italy inheritance tax and property taxes are life-enhancingly slim.  He has delegated competently that which had to be administered competently - thank you Mr  Draghi and Mr Tremonti.  He has acted to severely restrict people-trafficking.  He has maintained excellent relations with the Church.

Death, taxes, immigration, and  cultural homogeneity: that's quite a settlement programme delivered.

Unfortunately he has also delivered a form of criminal governance that is best exemplified in Russia.   You want a result and democratic institutions and practice get in the way?  Legislate to change them, buy the office-holders, kill the problem.   There is another aspect of Russian governance that appeals to him enormously:  the interplay displayed by Putin and Medvedev - now the Prime Minister now the President shuttlecock.  Mr Berlusconi is very close to the Russians and their game, and Italy is very dependent on Russian energy and the riches it can provide to both sides; Italians, too, will accept anyone who keeps their factories and homes and cities going, and leaves their privacy, particularly wealth and possessions privacy, secure and, above all, alone.

Mr Berlusconi may wish to step not down, but up, to the Presidency.  The real question is who is to be helped into place  as Prime Minister leading the absolute majority of the centre right.  Who can command the support of the current Prime Minister, the support of the Northern Leagues, and the support of those calling for a 'technical government' during a time of severe financial crisis?

Something beginning with 'T'?

UPDATE

Berlusconi has carried both Houses in the vote of Confidence, the Lower House by 3 votes: 314 -311.  The Senate was always going to be comfortable but 3 votes  in the Lower House is not enough.