Ireland is next on the agenda, Germany having safely shuffled off the socialist coil. Germany will be reconsidering its position now that it has shed the 'centre left' print money, expand debt, spend our way out of the crisis economic babyishness espoused unfortunately by the UK government. The electorate have chosen reducing and flattening taxes to increase demand and rejected attempts to render its manufacturing industry more inefficient by imposing unaffordable social and state 'investment' costs.
The German national elections' example will offer support, in Ireland's second, imposed, referendum on Lisbon, to the view that the Lisbon version of the European Union is unacceptable, not just in its democratic deficit but in its espousing of jejeune economic and financial interference in member states' policies . It should be remembered that the rejected Treaty was redrafted (to say exactly the same thing) by Giuliano Amato who was the socialist sidekick to disgraced socialist leader Bettino Craxi, and continues to seek to embed a 'left of centre' permanent governance over the Union. The collapse of support for 'centre left' progressive governance in member states needs to be drafted into any Union-wide agreements to embody and reflect the majority political and ideological stance of member states' electorates now.
Ireland does not want to find itself on the wrong side of the sea change in the political and economic stances of the European Union at a time when it needs to keep as much control over choices in confronting the crisis for itself and, at the same time have as much input into collective choices as it can command.
Further, to reject again the Lisbon Treaty will trigger a new approach to European-wide government and its form. To change their vote now, and accept a Treaty that has been outrun by events would be the worst of all worlds.
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To change their vote now, and accept a Treaty that has been outrun by events would be the worst of all worlds.
Agree completely. Twould be bad for us too.
HG, I fear you are becoming delusional.
Germany will ratify, despite the election and the concerns of the Constitutional Court (which will be allayed by emergency legislation).
Ireland will probably roll over.
The Czech republic's ratification is being delayed only by the personal prestige of Mr. Klaus, which will not last long.
Cameron is spineless.
Add it all up: Lisbon is a done deal; the project continues.
You haven't mentioned the declaration by I forget which Frenchman that Lisbon will go ahead whatever the outcome of the Irish vote, WY, either.
And yet, so altered is the European political landscape by the ejection of the left from German government, we have barely begun to assess how out dated and inappropriate Lisbon now is.
Consider Iran. Germany is their biggest trading partner. German foreign policy towards Iran is going to reflect the increased importance of business criteria over what might be called US criteria and interests; and under Lisbon, the Union will have a single foreign policy with its own minister and forces. Why should Germany permit any interference in its Iranian relations by, say, the UK? Any more than it will permit the current UK economic policies to be imposed upon its economy in the interests of some notion of world trade balances. So what will give? Is UK foreign policy towards Iran, so much aligned to US policy, going to change?
I repeat, the purposes of Lisbon have been overtaken before its implementation by democratically determined member state political realignments. A centre right UK is utterly ill-served by Lisbon though a centre right Germany is powerful enough economically to force what it wants, or force things more closely to what it wants if it does decide to let Lisbon go through.
Don't think its going to make much difference. Eurocrats want a single union. No other options are allowed. Irish likely to vote YES anyway. Another casualty of the recession is the NO vote.
Hope you are right, but fear otherwise.
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